North Carolina's seeding was the most forgone conclusion of the women's selection process, but Sylvia Hatchell was right to look a little nervous about her team's bracket in the selection show interview: the Tar Heels are the biggest bait in a bracket of sharks: Louisville, Purdue, Rutgers, Tennessee, even George Washington are all potentially capable of giving the Tar Heels a run for their money. Then again, the Heels have made a habit of outrunning opponents all year.
Tennessee might have been the biggest one-seed snub of the year. Joni Comstock, the chair of the women's selection committee, claimed that the decision to keep them out of the top four teams, "took a very, very long time to deliberate." Still, the Lady Vols have an impressive record against the other tournament teams, and their schedule strength and RPI are, as usual, among the best in the nation. Barring an epic upset by tournament newcomer Army (and wouldn't that be a story for young coach Maggie Dixon?), Tennessee will be staring down the second round.
BRIDGEPORT
On the money: No. 2 UConn
Biggest surprise: No. 1 Duke - No. 16 Southern
The Huskies haven't had much come easy this season, but their second-place seeding in the Bridgeport bracket means that they might well have the red carpet rolled out for them in Bridgeport. They have CoppinState, and Virginia Tech or Missouri between them and what will amount to home-court advantage, as the well-traveled Huskies could be playing less than 100 miles from home.
Woe to Duke, then, if the seedings play out. The Blue Devils won't find too many friends in Bridgeport, even as the top seed. Comstock explained that teems are seeded, and then placed in the bracket in seeding order by the remaining site closest to home. UNC and Duke, then, had to Duke it out for the eastern sites, and Carolina's superior record (and three wins over the Blue Devils), kept them out of Bridgeport.
Duke's top seeding may not have been a surprise, but the Duke matchup with 16th-seeded Southern is remarkable because it mirrors the men's bracket, where the top-seeded Duke men will face the Southern University men in the first round. Ironically, the Blue Devils' chances of duplicating UConn's tandem title year in both brackets may have to go through, well, UConn.
Talk about the little engine that could. The image of defeated Notre Dame coach Muffet McGraw with her head in her hands, calling her team's early loss to the Red Storm the worst in program history has stuck with me this season as the Irish tumbled into the bottom half of the conference and St. John's held its own. Finishing fourth in the Big East is not to be underestimated. Behind conference heavyweights UConn, Rutgers and DePaul, all top-five seeds, I'll be rooting for the Red Storm as long as they stick around.
That could well be only as long as it takes them to meet Maryland. OhioState took the No. 1 seed that many (myself included) felt could have gone to the Terps.
"Maryland was one of the teams that the committee looked at very carefully in terms of consideration for a one seed," Comstock said. But they missed out on that top spot because of the relative weakness of their non-conference schedule, and the four losses on their record. Not to mention, OhioState is one of the hottest teams in the nation, their last loss coming on the first of the year to Cleveland four-seed Purdue. They exorcized that demon nicely with a Big Ten tournament title win over the Boilermakers, and their 19-game winning streak has them so scorching hot that the selection committee may have gotten burned. If they're not careful, a Boston College, Arizona State or Florida to surprise the OhioState ladies in a big way.
LSU was my pick for the odd man out in a UNC-Duke-Maryland top seed group, and they're still standing at the top of the San Antonio basket. Anyone with Seimone Augustus on their roster cannot be counted out, nor should center Sylvia Fowles or the fire of head coach Pokey Chatman be ignored. If these ladies exit the tournament at full strength before the Final Four, I'll eat my bracket.
Washington, meanwhile, is limping into the postseason. Six teams from the Pac-10 made the tournament, and the Huskies are solidly in the middle of that pack, but they have three nasty losses at the back end of their schedule that might've weighed more heavily on the committee's seeding decisions. A 31-point blowout at the hands of Stanford, a 23-point loss at Cal and a first-round conference tournament upset by USC might be enough to knock Washington into double digit seeding for my money, but Comstock pointed to their earlier wins over the Bruins, Cardinal and FloridaState put them over the edge.
